The trade war is now the biggest risk to markets. The resumption of the trade war between the United States and China has surprised investors and hit global stocks. Since May 5, when President Donald Trump first tweeted his intention to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25%, the S&P 500 index has dropped 4.5%, led by the technology sector’s 5.4% decline. Utilities stocks have held up best over that time, rising 0.2% since the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies re-escalated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 3.6%. While the broad S&P 500 is likely to remain volatile in the days to come—moving up or down sharply on every trade war-related headline—it’s easier to predict the sector-level implications of a prolonged trade war. Technology, materials, and industrials companies stand to lose the most from a prolonged conflict. They have the greatest reliance on Chinese manufacturing, as well as a larger concentration of customers in China.
自5月5日唐纳德特朗普总统首次发布其将2000亿美元中国商品的关税提高至25％的意向后，标准普尔500指数下跌4.5％，其中科技板块下跌5.4％。公用事业股在此期间表现最佳，自世界两大经济体之间的贸易冲突再度升级以来上涨了0.2％。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌3.6％。虽然广泛的标准普尔500指数可能会在未来几天保持波动 - 在每个与贸易战相关的标题上大幅上涨或下跌 - 但更容易预测长期贸易战的行业层面影响。技术、材料和工业公司在长期冲突中损失最大。他们最依赖中国制造业，以及更多的中国客户。
The sectors face increased costs from tariffs or other trade disruptions, as well as falling sales if economic growth in China falters or the government responds with other, non-tariff barriers for foreign business. A proposed round of U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods could mean that practically every item that China exports to the U.S. is slapped with a 25% tax by the end of June.
According to the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the top export categories from the U.S. to China in 2018 were aircraft ($18 billion), machinery ($14 billion), and electrical machinery ($13 billion). Count industrial names like Boeing (BA), Cummins (CMI), Emerson (EMR), or Ingersoll-Rand (IR) as particularly exposed to China, per Strategas Research Partners. A.O. Smith (AOS), a manufacturer of water pumps and heaters, derived about a third of its revenues from China last year. Its shares have dropped 10.3% since May 5.
据美国贸易代表办公室称，2018年美国到中国的最大出口类别是飞机（180亿美元），机械（140亿美元）和电机（130亿美元）。根据Strategas Research Partners的统计，波音（BA），康明斯（CMI），艾默生（EMR）或英格索兰（IR）等工业品牌特别受中国影响。 A.O.史密斯（AOS）是一家水泵和加热器制造商，去年从中国获得了大约三分之一的收入。其股价自5月5日以来下跌10.3％。
The values of industrial commodities like copper or iron ore are sensitive to global economic growth, and to the extent that the U.S.-China trade conflict leads to a drop in activity, their prices will follow. Copper prices have already dropped over 3% since the start of last week. Over that time, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the world’s second-largest copper producer, has seen its shares fall 10.4%.
Chinese retaliatory tariffs have hit U.S. agricultural products particularly hard, including soybeans, of which the U.S. exported $3.1 billion last year. That’s been tough for U.S. farmers, but the resulting oversupply has helped meat processor Tyson Foods (TSN) thanks to lower feedstock costs. Tyson’s stock is up 6% since the trade war re-escalated last week.
Things could be more bleak from the Chinese stock market perspective. Chinese equities also experienced a bounce, up 2% on Wednesday, but it may not last long, according to a CNBC analysis of Kensho data.
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) still tumbled more than 7 percent last week. Over the past 5 years, Chinese stocks have suffered similar losses on five other occasions, according to Kensho, an analytics tool used by Wall Street banks and hedge funds to mine market history for trading insights.
After similar drops, the bearish trend continues, with Chinese equities trading negatively 100 percent of the time a month later, losing an average of 3.5 percent. During those periods, the S&P 500 has traded negatively 2 out of 5 times, with an average return of -0.21%.